مدل رشـد جمعیت کرم گلــوگاه انار Ectomyelois ceratoniae (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) در شـرایط صحرایی

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل، فارسی

نویسندگان

1 گروه گیاه‌پزشکی پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 موسسه تحقیقات گیاه‌پزشکی کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران.

3 موسسه بیوشیمی بیوفیزیک، دانشکده علوم مهندسی، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

چکیده

کرم گلوگاه Ectomyelois ceratoniae مهمترین آفت انار در ایران است که دارای چند نسل هم پوشان در سال می­ باشد. در این مقاله به کارگیری مدل مکانیستیکی برای توصیف تأثیر کنترل بر اندازه جمعیت کل کرم گلوگاه انار مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. راه حل تحلیلی مدل مکانیستیکی به صورت تابع چگالی احتمال لجستیک توسط Matis et al. (2006) ارایه شده است. تابع چگالی احتمال لجستیک به خوبی با داده­ های کرم گلوگاه انار برای باغ شاهد و تیمار برازش یافت (r2=0.91 & 0.95). پراسنجه ­های مدل عبارتند از، پیش­بینی اندازه اوج جمعیت (Nmax)، پیش­ بینی زمان اوج جمعیت (tmax) و تقریب نرخ سرانه تولد و مرگ که همه آن­ها از نظر کاربردی اهمیت دارند. به طور کلی، این مقاله کاربرد تجزیه و تحلیل داده­ های جمعیت کرم گلوگاه انار با استفاده از مدل­ های مکانیستیکی و پراسنجه­ های آن­ها را نشان می­ دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Population growth model of the carob moth, Ectomyelois ceratoniae (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under field conditions

نویسندگان [English]

  • Kobra Fotouhi 1
  • Seyed Hosein Goldansaz 1
  • M. Amir-Maafi 2
  • V. Hosseininaveh 1
  • Ali Masoudi-Nejad 3
1 Department of Plant Protection, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
2 Iranian Research Institute of Plant Protection, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran.
3 Institute of Biochemistry and Biophysics, School of Engineering Sience, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The carob moth, Ectomyelois ceratoniae Zeller, is the most important pest on   pomegranate fruits and has several overlapping generations per year in Iran. This paper investigated the use of a mechanistic model for describing the effect of the control strategy on the size of the total population of the carob moth. The analytical solution of mechanistic model was written in the form of a logistic probability density function by Matis et al. (2006). The logistic probability density function fits this carob moth data very well for control and treatment fields (r2=0.91 and 0.95). The parameters of the model are the predicted peak size, Nmax, the predicted time of peak, tmax, and an approximate per capita birth and death rate, all of which are important in practical application. In general, this paper demonstrates the utility of analyzing carob moth population data using mechanistic models and their underlying rate parameters.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Carob moth
  • Population dynamics
  • Pomegranate garden

مراجع

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