مـدل‌سازی رشـد جمعیت شتـه گنـدم - گـل سـرخ (Hemiptera: Aphididae)Metopolophium dirhodum در شـرایط مـزرعه

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل، فارسی

نویسندگان

1 مؤسسة تحقیقات گیاه‌پزشکی کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

2 مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان لرستان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، لرستان، ایران.

چکیده

شته گندم­–­گل­ سرخ، Metopolophium dirhodum یکی از مهمترین شته ­های مزارع گندم و جو بوده و جمعیت آن در مزرعه به سرعت افزایش می­یابد. در این مطالعه، سه سری داده مربوط به نوسانات جمعیت شته گندم­–­گل­سرخ در یک مزرعه گندم در ورامین (تهران) در سال های 1378 تا 1380 و دو سری داده در یک مزرعه جو در منطقة الشتر استان لرستان در سال‌های 1396 و 1397 برای مدل­سازی رشد جمعیت این شته استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد، مدل­های نرمال و مربع سکانت هذلولوی نسبت به دو مدل­ لجستیک و رشد نمایی توصیف بهتری از تغییرات جمعیت شته گندم­–­گل­سرخ در کل فصل برای تمام سری داده ­ها در مزارع گندم و جو ارائه دادند. مدل­های نرمال و مربع سکانت هذلولوی به خوبی با داده­های مربوط به تغییرات جمعیت شته گندم­– گل­سرخ برازش یافتند، توصیف زیستی منطقی از تغییرات جمعیت شته ارائه دادند و یک مبنای آماری قدرتمند برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده های تجربی به دست آمده در این تحقیق بودند. پراسنجه‌های این مدل­ها عبارتند از پیش­بینی اندازه اوج جمعیت (Nmax)، پیش­بینی زمان اوج جمعیت (tmax) و نرخ تولد سرانه تقریبی که از نظر کاربردی اهمیت دارند. در مجموع نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که مدل­های رگرسیونی نرمال و مربع سکانت هذلولوی با منحنی­های فراوانی شته برازش خوبی داشته و می ­توان توسط پراسنجه‌های این مدل­ ها، پراسنجه‌های مدل مکانیکی را تخمین زد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Population growth modeling of rose‌-‌grain aphid, Metopolophium dirhodum (Hemiptera: Aphididae) on wheat in field condition

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Amir-Maafi 1
  • Shahram Shahrokhi 1
  • M. R. Jamshidi 2
1 Iranian Research Institute of Plant Protection, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organi-zation (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
2 Lorestan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research Center, AREEO, Lorestan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The rose-grain aphid, Metopolophium dirhodum is one of the most important species among wheat and barley aphids and its population trajectory in field is characterized by rapid boom. In the present study, three datasets from M. dirhodum population in a wheat field in Varamin (Tehran) from 1999 to 2001 and two datasets from a barley field in Aleshtar (Lorestan) in 2017 and 2018 were used for modeling the aphid population dynamics. We demonstrate that Normal and Hyperbolic Secant Squared models presented a much better description of M. dirhodum population dynamics in the whole season for all datasets from wheat and barley fields than the Exponential or Logistic Growth models. The Normal and Hyperbolic Secant Squared model analysis of data showed that the models were useful representations of the data, gave biologically reasonable descriptions of rose-grain aphid population dynamics, and were statistically powerful basis for the analysis of experimental data obtained in this research. The parameters of two mentioned models are the predicted peak size, Nmax, the predicted time of peak, tmax, and an approximate per capita birth rate, all of which are of interest in practical applications. Overall, the results of this study showed that the Normal and Hyperbolic Secant Squared regression models were shown to fit diverse abundance curves adequately and the parameters of the mechanical model can be estimated by the parameters of these models.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Wheat
  • Rose-grain aphid
  • Population growth
  • Modeling

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